Read the NameplateIs your HVAC quote fair?

Run the Quote X-Ray

Free beta — no account needed.

Analytics

What movesa quote

Everyone assumes the price follows the equipment. Measured across the whole database, most of it doesn't.

312 submitted quotes · 190 with a stated size · 4 with new ductwork left out of the charts, since the ducts are a bigger job than the equipment · rank correlation throughout, so one unusual quote cannot invent a trend

Weak relationship

A higher efficiency rating does track a higher price, but only weakly — it explains a fraction of the spread, not most of it.

Once system size is accounted for, the efficiency rating printed on a quote explains part of what it costs, but only part — correlation 0.35 across 74 quotes that state one. The dots below tilt upward, and they scatter widely around that tilt.

Price per ton against stated efficiency: the cloud tilts upward, with wide scatter $0 $2,120 $4,239 $6,359 $8,478 13.4 15.1 16.7 18.4 20.0 Efficiency rating stated on the quote (SEER2) Price per ton $4,320 at 14.0 — 2.5-ton American Standard 14 SEER2 single-stage AC with an American Standard 80% $4,650 at 15.0 — 3-ton ducted air-source heat pump with 10 kW auxiliary electric heat $4,625 at 16.5 — 4-ton Carrier Performance 26TPA8 two-stage AC (R-454B), AHRI matched at 16.5 SEE $3,800 at 16.0 — 4-ton Innovair 16 SEER2 variable-speed heat pump with matching coil and a Rheem $7,850 at 16.5 — 2-ton Carrier two-stage AC, AHRI-matched 16.5 SEER2, with a 80% AFUE two-stage f $4,288 at 13.4 — 2.5-ton Trane 5TTR3030A1000 condenser at 13.4 SEER with a Trane S8X2B080M4PSC 80 $6,950 at 15.2 — 2-ton Carrier single-stage AC, AHRI-matched 15.2 SEER2, with a 80% AFUE single-s $5,000 at 14.0 — 2.5-ton American Standard 14 SEER2 single-stage AC with an American Standard 80% $4,075 at 16.0 — 4-ton Bosch 16 SEER2 variable-speed heat pump with matching coil and a Rheem 75, $4,883 at 15.2 — 3-ton split-system heat pump with matching air handler / DX coil $3,856 at 13.4 — 2.5-ton Trane 5TTR3030A1000A single-stage air conditioner, 13.4 SEER2, R-454B, w $5,410 at 17.2 — 3-ton Goodman GLXT7C two-stage air conditioner, 17.2 SEER2, with a Goodman GR9T9 $4,180 at 14.5 — 2.5-ton Bryant Legacy 235SAN030 heat pump with Bryant Legacy Standard air handle $3,620 at 14.3 — 2.5-ton Carrier Comfort 27SCA530A003 heat pump (14.3 SEER2, R-454B) with Carrier $3,140 at 15.2 — 2.5-ton Goodman GLZS5BA3010 heat pump (15.2 SEER2, R-32) with Goodman AMST30BU13 $5,161 at 16.9 — 2.5-ton Bryant 37MUHAQ30 crossover inverter heat pump (Bryant badge of the Carri $3,027 at 14.3 — 4-ton Carrier 37MUHAQ48AA3 crossover heat pump, ADP PL48H175P15A35R horizontal p $4,581 at 15.2 — American Standard Silver 15 5A6H5036A1000A 3-ton single-stage heat pump with a 5 $2,783 at 15.0 — Rheem 3 ton single-stage heat pump with a matching Rheem air handler on an ECM m $4,094 at 16.0 — 4-ton Bosch 16 SEER2 variable-speed inverter heat pump condenser with matching 4 $4,571 at 14.0 — 3.5-ton Lennox 14 SEER2 single-stage AC with a Lennox 90,000 BTU 97% AFUE two-st $5,150 at 16.6 — 3-ton ducted inverter heat pump split system with 15 kW electric auxiliary heat $3,250 at 16.0 — 4-ton Ruud/Rheem 16 SEER2 single-speed heat pump with matching coil and a Rheem $3,928 at 14.3 — 2.5-ton York YC430E2S11 condenser at 14.3 SEER2 with a York Y82E080B12LMPS1A 80, $5,284 at 13.4 — 2.5-ton system at 13.4 SEER with a Ruud R801T0754A17UHSNAS 75,000 BTU single-sta $4,680 at 14.3 — 2.5-ton Bryant 134SAN03000N condenser at 14.3 SEER2 with a Bryant 820TB48090V17 $3,980 at 14.0 — 2.5-ton Carrier Comfort 27SCA530 heat pump with a Carrier Comfort FJ5BNXC30 air $6,286 at 14.5 — 3.5-ton Daikin 14.5 SEER2 complete system with a 2-zone control package and new $3,660 at 15.5 — Lennox Elite EL297UH090XV36CK 97% two-stage variable-speed gas furnace (90,000 B $2,975 at 15.0 — 3-ton Comfortmaker 15 SEER2 single-stage condenser with matching coil and gas fu $2,643 at 14.3 — Lennox Merit ML14KP1-042 3.5-ton single-stage heat pump with a CBK43UHET-042 con $3,525 at 16.0 — American Standard Silver 16 Low Profile 5HPL5048A1000A 4-ton multi-speed side-di $3,219 at 16.0 — 4-ton Rheem 16 SEER2 heat pump condenser with matching 4-ton coil, Rheem 75,000 $4,286 at 14.5 — 3.5-ton Goodman 14.5 SEER2 single-stage system (condenser, coil, gas furnace; R- $4,378 at 14.0 — 2.5-ton American Standard 5A6H4030A1000A heat pump with a 2-ton 5TAMXB02AV21DA a $3,733 at 17.4 — 3-ton Bryant Preferred 37MUHAQ36 cold-climate heat pump with a Bryant 45MUAAQ36 $3,461 at 14.3 — 3.5-ton heat pump with variable-speed air handler $4,167 at 17.0 — 3-ton Bosch IDS Plus BOVA-36RXB-M15S heat pump (R-454B) with a Bosch BIVA-36RCB- $4,213 at 13.4 — 2.5-ton Trane 5TTR3030A1000 condenser at 13.4 SEER with a Trane S8X1B080M4PSC 80 $4,317 at 15.2 — Trane S8X1C100M5PSCB 100,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with 5TXCC005 $3,912 at 13.4 — Trane S8X1C100M5PSCB 100,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with 5TXCC005 $3,420 at 13.4 — RunTru 3-ton single-stage 13.4 SEER2 condenser with 80% AFUE gas furnace and cas $3,500 at 15.5 — Payne PG80MSAA42090B 90,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with Carrier C $4,151 at 15.5 — Carrier 58SB0B090M1714 90,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with CVAVA36 $3,712 at 14.5 — 2.5-ton WeatherMaker PH5SAN530 heat pump (WeatherMaker badge of the Carrier/Payn $3,214 at 14.3 — American Standard 5A6H4042A1000A 3.5-ton single-stage heat pump with a 5TEM4B04A $5,900 at 18.0 — 3-ton Carrier 26TPA8 two-stage condenser, up to 18 SEER2, with Carrier Infinity $4,584 at 18.5 — Rheem Endeavor Prestige Universal RD18AY36AJVCA 3-ton variable-speed inverter he $3,979 at 18.5 — AC Pro SPHP-XB-036C1B 3-ton side-discharge variable-speed inverter heat pump wit $2,996 at 13.8 — American Standard Silver 13 4A7A3060N1000A single-speed air conditioner, 60,000 $5,600 at 18.0 — 3-ton Carrier 26TPA8 two-stage air conditioner, 18 SEER2, with a Carrier 59TP7A $7,617 at 17.2 — 3-ton Daikin DC7TC two-stage air conditioner, 17.2 SEER2, 35,400 BTU/h rated, wi $5,860 at 17.2 — 2.5-ton Bryant 37MUHAQ30 crossover inverter heat pump (Bryant badge of the Carri $4,671 at 14.5 — Heil Performance N5H5S30AKAAA single-stage heat pump with Quiet Comfort FTM5B36L $5,522 at 14.3 — Trane 14 Series 5TWR4024A1000A single-stage split-system heat pump with 5TEM6B02 $3,742 at 17.5 — Daikin FIT DH7VSA3610A 3-ton communicating variable-speed inverter heat pump wit $4,088 at 18.2 — Lennox Elite EL19KPV-048 4-ton variable-capacity heat pump with a Signature Coll $5,687 at 15.5 — Heil Performance N5H5S24AKAAA single-stage heat pump with Quiet Comfort FTM5X24L $3,688 at 17.1 — 4-ton American Standard Gold 17 5A7A7048A1000A multi-speed air conditioner, 17.1 $3,575 at 14.3 — 4-ton American Standard Silver 14.3 SEER2 condenser with matched coil, American $6,550 at 17.5 — Goodman 2-ton system at 17.5 SEER2. $7,850 at 17.5 — Carrier 2-ton system at 17.5 SEER2. $6,400 at 19.0 — Mitsubishi Hyper-Heat 2.5-ton cold-climate heat pump at 19 SEER2. $6,725 at 19.0 — Rheem Endeavor Prestige RD18AY 2-ton variable-speed inverter heat pump at 19 SEE $2,823 at 15.2 — 5-ton Lennox Merit single-stage gas split system on R-454B at 15.2 SEER2: ML14KC $2,220 at 14.3 — 5-ton RunTru by Trane gas split system at 14.3 SEER2: A4AC4060D single-stage con $2,540 at 14.3 — 5-ton Ruud gas split system at 14.3 SEER2: RA14AY60AJ1NA condenser, R801T1005A21 $5,240 at 18.7 — Mitsubishi Electric PUZ-AK42NLHZ ducted heat pump rated 46,257 BTU cooling and 3 $4,457 at 17.5 — 3-ton Lennox Elite EL19KPV-036-230 variable-capacity heat pump, 35,000 BTU at 17 $4,212 at 15.5 — 3-ton Lennox Elite EL16KP1-036-230 single-stage heat pump, 36,000 BTU at 15.5 SE $3,413 at 19.0 — 3-ton Lennox EL16KP1-036 heat pump at 19 SEER2 with a Lennox EL297UH090XE48C gas $5,043 at 20.0 — 3-ton Bryant Evolution Extreme variable-speed heat pump (290VANO3600A), up to 20 $3,848 at 13.4 — 2.5-ton RunTru (by Trane) A5AC3030A1000 condenser at 13.4 SEER with a RunTru A80 $4,560 at 17.5 — Daikin DH7 FIT: 4-ton DH7VSA4810 variable-speed inverter heat pump outdoor unit

Each dot is one quote. The figure runs from 0 (no relationship at all) to 1 (moves perfectly together); anything under about 0.3 is not a relationship worth acting on. Above that, it is worth noticing and still nowhere near a rule. Two quotes at the same rating typically sit about $2,206 per ton apart — 1.67× between the cheapest and dearest, across the 11 ratings held by at least 3 quotes each.

What does track

Moderate relationship · sample size 190

Is a bigger system cheaper per ton?

Yes. Price per ton falls as the system gets bigger, which is a large part of why a small system looks expensive. The fixed costs — the trip, the permit, the labour to get in and out — do not shrink with the equipment.

The badge, more than the maker

Does the brand on the box change the price?

Less than the badge does. Trane Technologies alone spans 52% between Trane and RunTru — wider than the 32% between the manufacturers that sell more than one badge here. Median price per ton across the 190 full systems that state a usable size, so a brand cannot look dear merely by selling larger systems. 62 further quotes from these brands sit outside that cut — 22 ductless, where price per head is the honest divisor; 2 with new ductwork, a bigger job than the equipment — so a bar is not a brand's whole presence in the database.

Median price per ton by brand, with the manufacturer behind each badge Mitsubishi Mitsubishi: $5,950/ton — 6 quotes — made by Mitsubishi $5,950/ton 6 quotes Mitsubishi Goodman Goodman: $5,410/ton — 7 quotes — made by Daikin $5,410/ton 7 quotes Daikin Carrier Carrier: $5,196/ton — 35 quotes — made by Carrier $5,196/ton 35 quotes Carrier Bryant Bryant: $5,072/ton — 14 quotes — made by Carrier $5,072/ton 14 quotes Carrier Daikin Daikin: $4,855/ton — 16 quotes — made by Daikin $4,855/ton 16 quotes Daikin Rheem Rheem: $4,584/ton — 15 quotes — made by Rheem $4,584/ton 15 quotes Rheem Trane Trane: $4,284/ton — 14 quotes — made by Trane Tech $4,284/ton 14 quotes Trane Tech Lennox Lennox: $4,212/ton — 21 quotes — made by Lennox $4,212/ton 21 quotes Lennox Bosch Bosch: $4,094/ton — 3 quotes — made by Bosch $4,094/ton 3 quotes Bosch Ruud Ruud: $3,820/ton — 7 quotes — made by Rheem $3,820/ton 7 quotes Rheem American Standard American Standard: $3,781/ton — 18 quotes — made by Trane Tech $3,781/ton 18 quotes Trane Tech WeatherMaker WeatherMaker: $3,712/ton — 3 quotes $3,712/ton 3 quotes AC Pro AC Pro: $3,690/ton — 4 quotes $3,690/ton 4 quotes RunTru RunTru: $2,820/ton — 4 quotes — made by Trane Tech $2,820/ton 4 quotes Trane Tech

Goodman and Daikin are both Daikin. Carrier and Bryant are both Carrier. Rheem and Ruud are both Rheem. Trane, American Standard and RunTru are all Trane Technologies. Mitsubishi Electric reaches US buyers through METUS, a 50/50 joint venture with Trane Technologies — it builds its own equipment and is not a Trane badge.

Does a ductless system get cheaper per head as you add heads?

Yes — 65% separates the dearest head count from the cheapest (3 heads $6,592, 6 heads $4,000), so the heads do not each cost the same.

Median price per head by head count 3 heads 3 heads: $6,592/head — made by 4 quotes $6,592/head 4 quotes Single-zone Single-zone: $5,550/head — made by 16 quotes $5,550/head 16 quotes 4 heads 4 heads: $4,988/head — made by 7 quotes $4,988/head 7 quotes 5 heads 5 heads: $4,340/head — made by 3 quotes $4,340/head 3 quotes 6 heads 6 heads: $4,000/head — made by 3 quotes $4,000/head 3 quotes

Priced per head because a ductless system's outdoor tonnage is not what the homeowner is buying. 30 of these 35 quotes name a manufacturer, but only 2 carry the 3 needed to rank a brand, so no ductless brand comparison is drawn.

Weak relationship · sample size 115

Does variable-capacity equipment cost more?

Yes — variable-capacity systems run about 28% more per ton than single-stage.

Median price per ton by how the compressor modulates Variable / modulating Variable / modulating: $5,111/ton — 56 quotes $5,111/ton 56 quotes Two-stage Two-stage: $4,533/ton — 21 quotes $4,533/ton 21 quotes Single-stage Single-stage: $3,979/ton — 38 quotes $3,979/ton 38 quotes

Geography

Does the state change the price?

Yes — the median full system in MA is 94% above NY. Full systems only, leaving out jobs with new ductwork. Thin samples — read the counts beside each bar.

Median full-system price by state MA MA: $21,100 — 8 quotes $21,100 8 quotes IN IN: $17,700 — 3 quotes $17,700 3 quotes MN MN: $17,450 — 12 quotes $17,450 12 quotes OH OH: $17,050 — 4 quotes $17,050 4 quotes TX TX: $16,135 — 8 quotes $16,135 8 quotes WA WA: $15,575 — 6 quotes $15,575 6 quotes PA PA: $15,166 — 16 quotes $15,166 16 quotes NC NC: $14,750 — 3 quotes $14,750 3 quotes VA VA: $14,700 — 11 quotes $14,700 11 quotes NE NE: $14,000 — 4 quotes $14,000 4 quotes NJ NJ: $13,900 — 29 quotes $13,900 29 quotes CA CA: $13,751 — 31 quotes $13,751 31 quotes CT CT: $13,210 — 3 quotes $13,210 3 quotes CO CO: $13,206 — 8 quotes $13,206 8 quotes NV NV: $12,875 — 5 quotes $12,875 5 quotes GA GA: $12,500 — 9 quotes $12,500 9 quotes MD MD: $12,300 — 4 quotes $12,300 4 quotes NY NY: $10,900 — 17 quotes $10,900 17 quotes

Predicts price with no equipment data at all

How the quote is written predicts what it costs

Neither of these is about the hardware, and both can be read off any proposal without knowing a thing about the machine on it. A contractor who won't print an efficiency rating charges about 25% more per ton. An itemised quote — which reads as transparency — prices about 12% more per ton than a lump sum.

Median price per ton by how the quote is written Does not state a rating Does not state a rating: $5,363/ton — 70 quotes $5,363/ton 70 quotes States a rating States a rating: $4,287/ton — 120 quotes $4,287/ton 120 quotes Itemised Itemised: $5,017/ton — 14 quotes $5,017/ton 14 quotes Lump sum Lump sum: $4,483/ton — 176 quotes $4,483/ton 176 quotes

Why any of this matters

59 quotes for the same size system

Every dot is the same size job. They run from $8,350 to $22,850 — a 2.74× spread. That gap is the reason this site exists. Nothing measured here explains most of it: the strongest relationship on this page is moderate, at −0.60.

Every quote for the commonest system size in the database $8,350 $22,850 $8,350 — Rheem 3 ton single-stage heat pump with a matching Rheem air handler on an ECM m $8,925 — 3-ton Comfortmaker 15 SEER2 single-stage condenser with matching coil and gas fu $8,954 — 3-ton heat pump, 14 SEER $9,200 — 3-ton heat pump with 15 KW electric heat kit $9,820 — Goodman gas split system: 100,000 BTU single-stage 80% AFUE gas furnace with a 3 $10,239 — 3-ton Lennox EL16KP1-036 heat pump at 19 SEER2 with a Lennox EL297UH090XE48C gas $10,260 — RunTru 3-ton single-stage 13.4 SEER2 condenser with 80% AFUE gas furnace and cas $10,500 — Payne PG80MSAA42090B 90,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with Carrier C $10,980 — Lennox Elite EL297UH090XV36CK 97% two-stage variable-speed gas furnace (90,000 B $11,150 — 3-ton Daikin gas furnace with matching evaporator coil and condenser, horizontal $11,200 — 3-ton American Standard 14 SEER two-stage heat pump system with a photohydrolysi $11,200 — 3-ton Bryant Preferred 37MUHAQ36 cold-climate heat pump with a Bryant 45MUAAQ36 $11,225 — Daikin FIT DH7VSA3610A 3-ton communicating variable-speed inverter heat pump wit $11,736 — Trane S8X1C100M5PSCB 100,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with 5TXCC005 $11,937 — AC Pro SPHP-XB-036C1B 3-ton side-discharge variable-speed inverter heat pump wit $12,100 — Bryant gas split system: 134S single-stage condenser on R-454B with a Bryant 820 $12,139 — Carrier Comfort 26SCA4 single-stage AC, Carrier Comfort 80 single-stage gas furn $12,300 — 3-ton split heat pump with variable-speed air handler and 10kW electric backup h $12,453 — Carrier 58SB0B090M1714 90,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with CVAVA36 $12,500 — 3-ton Carrier Comfort 15 26SCA536 AC with a Carrier CVAVA3617 evaporator coil an $12,500 — 3-ton Bosch IDS Plus BOVA-36RXB-M15S heat pump (R-454B) with a Bosch BIVA-36RCB- $12,635 — 3-ton Lennox Elite EL16KP1-036-230 single-stage heat pump, 36,000 BTU at 15.5 SE $12,700 — 3-ton American Standard 15 SEER two-stage heat pump system with a photohydrolysi $12,950 — Trane S8X1C100M5PSCB 100,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with 5TXCC005 $13,400 — 3-ton Carrier 37MURAQ36AA3 heat pump (R-454B) with a Carrier 45MUAAQ air handler $13,500 — 3-ton Amana AXV6SS3610 variable-speed heat pump with an Amana CHPEA3626B3 coil, $13,600 — 3-ton Carrier Performance 18 two-stage heat pump (27TPA836A**3) with a Carrier P $13,742 — American Standard Silver 15 5A6H5036A1000A 3-ton single-stage heat pump with a 5 $13,751 — Rheem Endeavor Prestige Universal RD18AY36AJVCA 3-ton variable-speed inverter he $13,950 — 3-ton ducted air-source heat pump with 10 kW auxiliary electric heat $14,100 — 3-ton Carrier Performance 16 26SPA636 AC with a Carrier CVAVA3617 evaporator coi $14,200 — Carrier Performance Series "High Heat" system: 37MUHAQ36AA3 outdoor heat pump wi $14,600 — 3-ton Trane 17 SEER multi-speed heat pump with an 80% AFUE single-stage gas furn $14,650 — 3-ton split-system heat pump with matching air handler / DX coil $14,700 — 3-ton Carrier Performance 18 26TPA836 two-stage AC with a Carrier CVAVA3817 evap $15,100 — 3-ton American Standard 17 SEER variable-speed heat pump system with a photohydr $15,129 — 3-ton Bryant Evolution Extreme variable-speed heat pump (290VANO3600A), up to 20 $15,300 — Bryant dual-fuel: 290 Evolution variable-speed heat pump on R-454B with a Bryant $15,450 — 3-ton ducted inverter heat pump split system with 15 kW electric auxiliary heat $15,981 — 3-ton air conditioner with 80% AFUE gas furnace and matching evaporator coil, se $16,100 — Daikin Fit "Enhanced Capacity" system: DH7VSA3610 3-ton variable-speed inverter $16,231 — 3-ton Goodman GLXT7C two-stage air conditioner, 17.2 SEER2, with a Goodman GR9T9 $16,400 — 3-ton Trane 18 SEER variable-speed heat pump with a two-stage gas furnace with v $16,400 — 3-ton Ruud RD16AY variable-speed heat pump system (16 SEER) with new copper line $16,500 — 3-ton Lennox 15 SEER AC with a Lennox 97% AFUE 90,000 BTU furnace. $16,650 — 96% AFUE gas furnace with 3-ton condensing unit and matched evaporator coil $16,800 — 3-ton Carrier 26TPA8 two-stage air conditioner, 18 SEER2, with a Carrier 59TP7A $17,400 — 3-ton Armstrong heat pump with an Armstrong 98% AFUE gas furnace (dual fuel). $17,700 — 3-ton Carrier 26TPA8 two-stage condenser, up to 18 SEER2, with Carrier Infinity $18,100 — 3-ton two-stage condenser, 17 SEER, with a 96% AFUE two-stage variable-speed fur $18,500 — 3-ton Goodman 17 SEER two-stage AC with a Goodman 96% AFUE two-stage variable-sp $19,000 — 3-ton American Standard 5A7V8X36A variable-speed system with an American Standar $19,121 — 3-ton Copper & Hunter outdoor heat pump with a 36,000 BTU ducted air handler, 10 $19,500 — 3-ton Carrier Infinity 20 variable-capacity heat pump (27VNA036A**3) with a Carr $19,850 — 3-ton ducted cold-climate inverter heat pump with matching air handler $20,200 — 3-ton Carrier 26TPA8 two-stage AC with a Carrier Infinity 59TN7A 97% AFUE two-st $20,500 — 3-ton Jetson ducted cold-climate heat pump with an indoor air handler, replacing $20,999 — AC Plus 3-ton economy package: 3-ton condenser, 3-ton 80% AFUE 60,000 BTU gas fu $22,850 — 3-ton Daikin DC7TC two-stage air conditioner, 17.2 SEER2, 35,400 BTU/h rated, wi 59 quotes for the same size system

What does not track

What this can't tell you

  • These are associations, not causes. Nothing here says a badge causes a price; it says they move together in the quotes collected so far.
  • Brand, tier and price are tangled. A brand that skews toward premium equipment will look expensive for that reason alone, and at this sample size the two cannot be separated.
  • Every figure moves as the database grows. This page is computed live from submitted quotes, so it is a reading of what has been contributed — not a survey of the market.

Got a proposal in front of you? Run the Quote X-Ray and it'll be measured against every quote above.