137 submitted quotes · 66 with a stated size · rank correlation throughout, so one unusual quote cannot invent a trend
No relationship
Paying more does not buy a better efficiency rating. Once system size is accounted for, the efficiency rating printed on a quote has effectively no bearing on what it costs — correlation 0.47 across 31 quotes that state one. The dots below should climb to the right. They don't.
Price per ton against stated efficiency: the cloud is flat, showing no relationship
$0
$2,120
$4,239
$6,359
$8,478
13.4
15.1
16.7
18.4
20.0
Efficiency rating stated on the quote (SEER2)
Price per ton
$4,650 at 15.0 — 3-ton ducted air-source heat pump with 10 kW auxiliary electric heat $6,550 at 17.5 — Goodman 2-ton system at 17.5 SEER2. $7,850 at 17.5 — Carrier 2-ton system at 17.5 SEER2. $6,400 at 19.0 — Mitsubishi Hyper-Heat 2.5-ton cold-climate heat pump at 19 SEER2. $2,540 at 14.3 — 5-ton Ruud gas split system at 14.3 SEER2: RA14AY60AJ1NA condenser, R801T1005A21 $6,725 at 19.0 — Rheem Endeavor Prestige RD18AY 2-ton variable-speed inverter heat pump at 19 SEE $2,823 at 15.2 — 5-ton Lennox Merit single-stage gas split system on R-454B at 15.2 SEER2: ML14KC $2,220 at 14.3 — 5-ton RunTru by Trane gas split system at 14.3 SEER2: A4AC4060D single-stage con $5,240 at 18.7 — Mitsubishi Electric PUZ-AK42NLHZ ducted heat pump rated 46,257 BTU cooling and 3 $4,457 at 17.5 — 3-ton Lennox Elite EL19KPV-036-230 variable-capacity heat pump, 35,000 BTU at 17 $3,413 at 19.0 — 3-ton Lennox EL16KP1-036 heat pump at 19 SEER2 with a Lennox EL297UH090XE48C gas $4,212 at 15.5 — 3-ton Lennox Elite EL16KP1-036-230 single-stage heat pump, 36,000 BTU at 15.5 SE $5,043 at 20.0 — 3-ton Bryant Evolution Extreme variable-speed heat pump (290VANO3600A), up to 20 $4,560 at 17.5 — Daikin DH7 FIT: 4-ton DH7VSA4810 variable-speed inverter heat pump outdoor unit $4,883 at 15.2 — 3-ton split-system heat pump with matching air handler / DX coil $5,150 at 16.6 — 3-ton ducted inverter heat pump split system with 15 kW electric auxiliary heat $4,680 at 14.3 — 2.5-ton Bryant 134SAN03000N condenser at 14.3 SEER2 with a Bryant 820TB48090V17 $3,928 at 14.3 — 2.5-ton York YC430E2S11 condenser at 14.3 SEER2 with a York Y82E080B12LMPS1A 80, $4,151 at 15.5 — Carrier 58SB0B090M1714 90,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with CVAVA36 $3,912 at 13.4 — Trane S8X1C100M5PSCB 100,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with 5TXCC005 $3,420 at 13.4 — RunTru 3-ton single-stage 13.4 SEER2 condenser with 80% AFUE gas furnace and cas $3,500 at 15.5 — Payne PG80MSAA42090B 90,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with Carrier C $4,317 at 15.2 — Trane S8X1C100M5PSCB 100,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with 5TXCC005 $5,900 at 18.0 — 3-ton Carrier 26TPA8 two-stage condenser, up to 18 SEER2, with Carrier Infinity $3,979 at 18.5 — AC Pro SPHP-XB-036C1B 3-ton side-discharge variable-speed inverter heat pump wit $2,996 at 13.8 — American Standard Silver 13 4A7A3060N1000A single-speed air conditioner, 60,000 $4,584 at 18.5 — Rheem Endeavor Prestige Universal RD18AY36AJVCA 3-ton variable-speed inverter he $3,742 at 17.5 — Daikin FIT DH7VSA3610A 3-ton communicating variable-speed inverter heat pump wit $5,522 at 14.3 — Trane 14 Series 5TWR4024A1000A single-stage split-system heat pump with 5TEM6B02 $4,671 at 14.5 — Heil Performance N5H5S30AKAAA single-stage heat pump with Quiet Comfort FTM5B36L $5,687 at 15.5 — Heil Performance N5H5S24AKAAA single-stage heat pump with Quiet Comfort FTM5X24L
Each dot is one quote. If a pricier quote bought a better system, the cloud would tilt upward. The figure runs from 0 (no relationship at all) to 1 (moves perfectly together); anything under about 0.3 is not a relationship worth acting on.
What does track Weak relationship · sample size 66
Does a bigger system cost more? Yes, and it is the strongest honest driver — but only moderately. Loose enough that two systems of identical size sit thousands of dollars apart.
Quoted price against system size: prices rise with size, loosely
$0
$14,040
$28,080
$42,120
$56,160
1.9
2.7
3.4
4.2
5.0
System size (tons)
Quoted price
$13,950 at 3.0 — 3-ton ducted air-source heat pump with 10 kW auxiliary electric heat $10,345 at 2.0 — Trane XR17 2-ton system at 17 SEER on the pre-2023 scale. $13,100 at 2.0 — Goodman 2-ton system at 17.5 SEER2. $15,700 at 2.0 — Carrier 2-ton system at 17.5 SEER2. $16,000 at 2.5 — Mitsubishi Hyper-Heat 2.5-ton cold-climate heat pump at 19 SEER2. $12,700 at 5.0 — 5-ton Ruud gas split system at 14.3 SEER2: RA14AY60AJ1NA condenser, R801T1005A21 $16,900 at 2.5 — Mitsubishi ducted split system: SUZ-AA30NL standard-efficiency outdoor heat pump $13,450 at 2.0 — Rheem Endeavor Prestige RD18AY 2-ton variable-speed inverter heat pump at 19 SEE $9,650 at 5.0 — AC Pro M-Series 5-ton gas split system on R-454B refrigerant: M-Series condenser $14,115 at 5.0 — 5-ton Lennox Merit single-stage gas split system on R-454B at 15.2 SEER2: ML14KC $11,100 at 5.0 — 5-ton RunTru by Trane gas split system at 14.3 SEER2: A4AC4060D single-stage con $16,100 at 3.0 — Daikin Fit "Enhanced Capacity" system: DH7VSA3610 3-ton variable-speed inverter $12,450 at 4.0 — 4-ton Daikin Fit DH6VSA481 inverter heat pump at 17 SEER with a Daikin DR96TC120 $9,620 at 2.5 — 2.5-ton RunTru (by Trane) A5AC3030A1000 condenser at 13.4 SEER with a RunTru A80 $20,200 at 3.9 — Mitsubishi Electric PUZ-AK42NLHZ ducted heat pump rated 46,257 BTU cooling and 3 $13,000 at 2.9 — 3-ton Lennox Elite EL19KPV-036-230 variable-capacity heat pump, 35,000 BTU at 17 $10,239 at 3.0 — 3-ton Lennox EL16KP1-036 heat pump at 19 SEER2 with a Lennox EL297UH090XE48C gas $12,635 at 3.0 — 3-ton Lennox Elite EL16KP1-036-230 single-stage heat pump, 36,000 BTU at 15.5 SE $15,129 at 3.0 — 3-ton Bryant Evolution Extreme variable-speed heat pump (290VANO3600A), up to 20 $13,600 at 3.0 — 3-ton Carrier Performance 18 two-stage heat pump (27TPA836A**3) with a Carrier P $19,500 at 3.0 — 3-ton Carrier Infinity 20 variable-capacity heat pump (27VNA036A**3) with a Carr $9,850 at 4.0 — 4-ton Daikin DC3SQN4810 condenser with a Daikin DR96SN1205DN 120,000 BTU 96% AFU $52,000 at 4.0 — Mitsubishi MXZ-SM48NAMHZ 48,000 BTU multi-zone hyper-heat outdoor unit with SVZ- $18,241 at 4.0 — Daikin DH7 FIT: 4-ton DH7VSA4810 variable-speed inverter heat pump outdoor unit $19,000 at 2.0 — Fujitsu AOU24RGLX 24,000 BTU ducted heat pump with AMUG24LMAS basement air handl $14,981 at 4.0 — 96% AFUE 80,000 BTU single-stage gas furnace with 4-ton air conditioner and matc $22,651 at 4.0 — Lennox furnace and air conditioner, 4 ton, R410A $16,650 at 3.0 — 96% AFUE gas furnace with 3-ton condensing unit and matched evaporator coil $24,946 at 3.5 — 3.5-ton 14 SEER split system with condenser, evaporator coil and furnace (R-454B $16,115 at 5.0 — 5-ton Lennox ML13KC1 condenser with a Lennox ML196UH 110,000 BTU furnace, instal $13,495 at 2.5 — 2.5-ton heat pump at 15 SEER, contractor's "Classic" tier; condenser, air handle $19,200 at 3.5 — 3.5-ton Daikin Fit variable-speed inverter heat pump with electric heat kit, exi $10,720 at 2.5 — 2.5-ton Trane 5TTR3030A1000 condenser at 13.4 SEER with a Trane S8X2B080M4PSC 80 $14,650 at 3.0 — 3-ton split-system heat pump with matching air handler / DX coil $15,450 at 3.0 — 3-ton ducted inverter heat pump split system with 15 kW electric auxiliary heat $11,700 at 2.5 — 2.5-ton Bryant 134SAN03000N condenser at 14.3 SEER2 with a Bryant 820TB48090V17 $9,820 at 2.5 — 2.5-ton York YC430E2S11 condenser at 14.3 SEER2 with a York Y82E080B12LMPS1A 80, $13,210 at 2.5 — 2.5-ton system at 13.4 SEER with a Ruud R801T0754A17UHSNAS 75,000 BTU single-sta $20,999 at 3.0 — AC Plus 3-ton economy package: 3-ton condenser, 3-ton 80% AFUE 60,000 BTU gas fu $12,300 at 3.0 — 3-ton split heat pump with variable-speed air handler and 10kW electric backup h $19,800 at 5.0 — 5-ton Ruud RD16AY60AJVCA variable-speed inverter heat pump with a Ruud R962V1155 $19,000 at 5.0 — 5-ton Daikin DC4SEA condenser with a Daikin DR96TC 100,000 BTU two-stage variabl $9,820 at 3.0 — Goodman gas split system: 100,000 BTU single-stage 80% AFUE gas furnace with a 3 $12,453 at 3.0 — Carrier 58SB0B090M1714 90,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with CVAVA36 $11,736 at 3.0 — Trane S8X1C100M5PSCB 100,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with 5TXCC005 $10,260 at 3.0 — RunTru 3-ton single-stage 13.4 SEER2 condenser with 80% AFUE gas furnace and cas $18,100 at 3.0 — 3-ton two-stage condenser, 17 SEER, with a 96% AFUE two-stage variable-speed fur $25,981 at 5.0 — Carrier Infinity 24VNA660A003 Greenspeed variable-speed air conditioner with CVP $10,532 at 2.5 — 2.5-ton Trane 5TTR3030A1000 condenser at 13.4 SEER with a Trane S8X1B080M4PSC 80 $10,500 at 3.0 — Payne PG80MSAA42090B 90,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with Carrier C $24,200 at 4.0 — 4-ton Carrier Performance system with a ~96% AFUE variable-speed furnace, instal $12,950 at 3.0 — Trane S8X1C100M5PSCB 100,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with 5TXCC005 $14,150 at 3.5 — Heat pump with air handler and 15 kW heat strips (3.5 ton), plus a second listed $17,700 at 3.0 — 3-ton Carrier 26TPA8 two-stage condenser, up to 18 SEER2, with Carrier Infinity $15,981 at 3.0 — 3-ton air conditioner with 80% AFUE gas furnace and matching evaporator coil, se $11,937 at 3.0 — AC Pro SPHP-XB-036C1B 3-ton side-discharge variable-speed inverter heat pump wit $14,980 at 5.0 — American Standard Silver 13 4A7A3060N1000A single-speed air conditioner, 60,000 $13,751 at 3.0 — Rheem Endeavor Prestige Universal RD18AY36AJVCA 3-ton variable-speed inverter he $19,850 at 3.0 — 3-ton ducted cold-climate inverter heat pump with matching air handler $11,225 at 3.0 — Daikin FIT DH7VSA3610A 3-ton communicating variable-speed inverter heat pump wit $10,400 at 1.9 — Trane 14 Series 5TWR4024A1000A single-stage split-system heat pump with 5TEM6B02 $10,900 at 2.3 — Heil Performance N5H5S30AKAAA single-stage heat pump with Quiet Comfort FTM5B36L $12,100 at 3.0 — 3-ton Bryant gas split system: a 134S single-stage condenser on R-454B refrigera $10,900 at 1.9 — Heil Performance N5H5S24AKAAA single-stage heat pump with Quiet Comfort FTM5X24L $19,121 at 3.0 — 3-ton Copper & Hunter outdoor heat pump with a 36,000 BTU ducted air handler, 10 $15,300 at 3.0 — 3-ton Bryant dual-fuel system: a 290 Evolution variable-speed heat pump on R-454
Widest equipment-linked gap
Does the brand on the box change the price? Yes — the widest equipment-linked gap in the data. Median price per ton, so a brand cannot look dear merely by selling larger systems.
Median price per ton by brand
Mitsubishi
Mitsubishi: $6,580/ton — 4 quotes $6,580/ton
4 quotes
Carrier
Carrier: $5,548/ton — 8 quotes $5,548/ton
8 quotes
Bryant
Bryant: $4,862/ton — 4 quotes $4,862/ton
4 quotes
Trane
Trane: $4,302/ton — 6 quotes $4,302/ton
6 quotes
Daikin
Daikin: $4,180/ton — 8 quotes $4,180/ton
8 quotes
Ruud
Ruud: $3,960/ton — 3 quotes $3,960/ton
3 quotes
Lennox
Lennox: $3,812/ton — 6 quotes $3,812/ton
6 quotes
RunTru
RunTru: $3,420/ton — 3 quotes $3,420/ton
3 quotes
Moderate relationship · sample size 44
Does variable-capacity equipment cost more? Yes, a real premium over single-stage.
Median price per ton by how the compressor modulates
Variable / modulating
Variable / modulating: $5,125/ton — 22 quotes $5,125/ton
22 quotes
Two-stage
Two-stage: $4,411/ton — 8 quotes $4,411/ton
8 quotes
Single-stage
Single-stage: $3,623/ton — 14 quotes $3,623/ton
14 quotes
Geography
Does the state change the price? Yes, and by more than most equipment choices. Full systems only. Thin samples — read the counts beside each bar.
Median full-system price by state
VA
VA: $19,121 — 3 quotes $19,121
3 quotes
IN
IN: $17,700 — 3 quotes $17,700
3 quotes
TX
TX: $17,270 — 3 quotes $17,270
3 quotes
PA
PA: $13,935 — 4 quotes $13,935
4 quotes
CA
CA: $13,751 — 9 quotes $13,751
9 quotes
NJ
NJ: $13,100 — 16 quotes $13,100
16 quotes
NY
NY: $10,900 — 11 quotes $10,900
11 quotes
Predicts price with no equipment data at all
How the quote is written predicts what it costs Neither of these is about the hardware, and both can be read off any proposal without knowing a thing about the machine on it. A contractor who won't print an efficiency rating charges about 18% more per ton . An itemised quote — which reads as transparency — prices like a premium.
Median price per ton by how the quote is written
Does not state a rating
Does not state a rating: $5,426/ton — 18 quotes $5,426/ton
18 quotes
States a rating
States a rating: $4,617/ton — 48 quotes $4,617/ton
48 quotes
Itemised
Itemised: $5,239/ton — 12 quotes $5,239/ton
12 quotes
Lump sum
Lump sum: $4,547/ton — 54 quotes $4,547/ton
54 quotes
Why any of this matters 28 quotes for the same size system Every dot is the same size job. They run from $9,820 to $20,999 — a 2.14× spread. That gap is the reason this site exists, and almost none of it is explained by the equipment.
Every quote for the commonest system size in the database
$9,820
$20,999
$9,820 — Goodman gas split system: 100,000 BTU single-stage 80% AFUE gas furnace with a 3 $10,239 — 3-ton Lennox EL16KP1-036 heat pump at 19 SEER2 with a Lennox EL297UH090XE48C gas $10,260 — RunTru 3-ton single-stage 13.4 SEER2 condenser with 80% AFUE gas furnace and cas $10,500 — Payne PG80MSAA42090B 90,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with Carrier C $11,225 — Daikin FIT DH7VSA3610A 3-ton communicating variable-speed inverter heat pump wit $11,736 — Trane S8X1C100M5PSCB 100,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with 5TXCC005 $11,937 — AC Pro SPHP-XB-036C1B 3-ton side-discharge variable-speed inverter heat pump wit $12,100 — 3-ton Bryant gas split system: a 134S single-stage condenser on R-454B refrigera $12,300 — 3-ton split heat pump with variable-speed air handler and 10kW electric backup h $12,453 — Carrier 58SB0B090M1714 90,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with CVAVA36 $12,635 — 3-ton Lennox Elite EL16KP1-036-230 single-stage heat pump, 36,000 BTU at 15.5 SE $12,950 — Trane S8X1C100M5PSCB 100,000 BTU 80% AFUE single-stage gas furnace with 5TXCC005 $13,600 — 3-ton Carrier Performance 18 two-stage heat pump (27TPA836A**3) with a Carrier P $13,751 — Rheem Endeavor Prestige Universal RD18AY36AJVCA 3-ton variable-speed inverter he $13,950 — 3-ton ducted air-source heat pump with 10 kW auxiliary electric heat $14,650 — 3-ton split-system heat pump with matching air handler / DX coil $15,129 — 3-ton Bryant Evolution Extreme variable-speed heat pump (290VANO3600A), up to 20 $15,300 — 3-ton Bryant dual-fuel system: a 290 Evolution variable-speed heat pump on R-454 $15,450 — 3-ton ducted inverter heat pump split system with 15 kW electric auxiliary heat $15,981 — 3-ton air conditioner with 80% AFUE gas furnace and matching evaporator coil, se $16,100 — Daikin Fit "Enhanced Capacity" system: DH7VSA3610 3-ton variable-speed inverter $16,650 — 96% AFUE gas furnace with 3-ton condensing unit and matched evaporator coil $17,700 — 3-ton Carrier 26TPA8 two-stage condenser, up to 18 SEER2, with Carrier Infinity $18,100 — 3-ton two-stage condenser, 17 SEER, with a 96% AFUE two-stage variable-speed fur $19,121 — 3-ton Copper & Hunter outdoor heat pump with a 36,000 BTU ducted air handler, 10 $19,500 — 3-ton Carrier Infinity 20 variable-capacity heat pump (27VNA036A**3) with a Carr $19,850 — 3-ton ducted cold-climate inverter heat pump with matching air handler $20,999 — AC Plus 3-ton economy package: 3-ton condenser, 3-ton 80% AFUE 60,000 BTU gas fu 28 quotes for the same size system
What does not track Bigger is not cheaper per ton. Correlation −0.45 across 66 quotes, which rules out the usual explanation for why a small system looks expensive.Counting the boxes tells you little. How many pieces of equipment a quote lists barely moves its price per ton — 0.10 across 61 quotes.Anything measured on fewer than 10 quotes is not shown at all. A correlation computed on a handful of rows is noise wearing a number's clothes, and it would get quoted the moment it rendered.What this can't tell you These are associations, not causes. Nothing here says a badge causes a price; it says they move together in the quotes collected so far.Brand, tier and price are tangled. A brand that skews toward premium equipment will look expensive for that reason alone, and at this sample size the two cannot be separated.Every figure moves as the database grows. This page is computed live from submitted quotes, so it is a reading of what has been contributed — not a survey of the market.Got a proposal in front of you? Run the Quote X-Ray and it'll be measured against every quote above.